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The 10-year expected return for a portfolio with the majority of its assets in bonds is at the lowest level in almost a century of data.Investors with a more traditional mix of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, face a likely expected return in the bottom 11 percent of history dating back to 1925.Peter Bernstein, the widely respected financial economist and historian, suggested more than a decade ago that the process of putting asset allocation decisions on autopilot would need to come to an end.He suggested that a more flexible and opportunistic investment strategy was going to be demanded until bond and stock valuations once again became attractive.

The Policy Portfolio – the framework used by institutional investors to allocate assets based on expected risks and returns in order to meet liabilities – has been under attack for some time.For our purposes we’ll consider just a simple mix of US bonds (intermediate US Treasuries) and US stocks (the S&P 500).Two topics are interesting to discuss with regard to this basic mix.Currently investors face a combination of poor expected equity bond returns.The explanation for the low expected 10-year returns of a balanced portfolio is straightforward.

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